If you are a player in a Pro-Pickem League or, much more importantly, if you want to wager on NFL games, there are good reasons why you should consider subscribing to our NFL forecasting service. First, you should realize that the Vegas point spreads are compiled by experts in the field whose job it is to develop the spreads so that half the money is wagered on one team and half the money goes on its opponent. This way the house is sure to make its 10% cut on all the bets placed. This is called the vigorish or simply the vig, sometimes the juice. What is really interesting is that research has shown that the average bettor wins only 48% of the time. That’s right; the average gamer would be better off just flipping a coin to select a wager! The break even point for a gambler is 52.6%. The following formula explains this. To simplify things let’s assume you place a bet for $100 on a team to beat the spread. The house takes its 10%, so if you win you make $90, and if you lose you lose $100. Thus the break even point is calculated: .526 x $90 + .474 x -$100 = 0. Thus, you have to win more than 52.6% of your wagers to make money.
Over the years our models have done much better than this break even winning percentage. Check out the post that reveals the win/loss record from the 2020 regular season to see that our models beat the spreads in 61.2% of the games with spread edges of 3 or more. In the playoff games over the past 14 seasons (2007-2021) our models with their 2 point spread edges have beaten the spreads in 57% of those games. Actually, in 2022 our playoff forecasts won 70% of the games with 2 point edges. Let’s do one more quick calculation, assuming wagers cover the spreads 60% of the time (this is our goal), and assuming a wager of $100. The expected payoff is: .6 x $90 + .4 x -$100 = $14. Now a $14 gain on a $100 wager is a 14% profit. That isn’t too shabby, and if you multiply that to include more, or higher stake, bets that profit obviously increases proportionately. Even a 57% winning record produces an 8.3% return on wagers. This is far better than the typical bettor realizes over the course of a season.