Over the past 18 years we have built statistical models that quite accurately forecast the points by which one NFL team will beat another. After years of work (since 2003) our models are accurate to the point where, by mid season, many of our forecasts are very close to what Vegas puts out. Our models need several weeks of data from a current season to start making good forecasts. Once our forecasting begins in week 4 we recommend, and track, the games with at least 3 point spread edges on the Vegas spreads. For example, if the Vegas spread on the Rams/Seattle game were: Rams -3, and our models have the Rams winning by 6 points, this would constitute a 3 point spread edge for the Rams. Each week there are several of these spread edges equal to or greater than 3, and these become our recommended wagers for that week. Over the past 13 seasons our models have done well and are continuing to improve. As you will note from the 2020 scorecard, on the 3 or more spread edges our models beat the spreads over 61% of the time. In 2021 and 2022 our forecasts did not fare nearly as well as in 2020, winning only half of the recommended wagers. However, in our defense these seasons were outliers and Covid most likely had a major impact on teams’ performances. In the upcoming 2023 season we expect our models to be back on track and performing very well again.
During the playoffs we reduce our spread edges to 2 points because by that stage of the season our models are forecasting so close to what the spread setters in Vegas are putting out. Over the past several seasons our record in the playoffs has exceeded 57% (note that in 2022 our playoff record was 70%) and we anticipate that this upcoming season will continue to produce great results.
Our forecasting models are statistical in nature and are based upon a number of complex variables relating to teams’ performances. The only qualitative variable employed is a small home field advantage. Thus, what you can do is to consider our quantitative forecast spread edges along with your own knowledge of the teams’ current advantages and problems. For example, if a starting running back or quarterback is sidelined, you can make your own assessments on how you view our forecasts and adjust them accordingly. However, you should remember that the Vegas spread setters are also considering these qualitative issues. Thus, we have learned that sticking with our quantitative analytical forecasts produces the best results.